Feral: Crit chance theory crafting

[Syrma]

Hello,

I have been thinking about the crit chance value (currently stands at 22 in terms of ap ratio), and I thought if this was suited for powershifting. Because as much as the bonus damage of crit is nice, the big DPS increase is also from the additional combo point. And since I use Wolfshead Helm and Furor, is the value 22 really accurate? I am sure that you cannot easily find an accurate number for either case, because even if you don't count the extra combo point in, the crit bonus damage still depends on the actual damage you make. So the more damage you make, the more the crit should be worth. But anyway it just feels that the crit is probably worth even more to powershifters, as you gain the extra combo point more often than those who don't powershift.

What do you guise think?

[Yurf]

A while back, I did some theorycrafting to prove out the C:AP = 22 for myself. I used the formulas from http://tangedyn.pbworks.com/w/page/19362766/Cat%20Model, and I was then rocking 33.30% crit and 1287 AP. (Between buffs that were missing and better gear, I think my AP is now much higher while crit hasn't increased as much, so I'll need to update this after the next raid I attend.) With those values, I came out with a white C:AP of 17.0 and a shred C:AP of 25.4. To get an overall C:AP of 22, that would mean 60% of your damage is coming from shred and 40% is coming from white hits. I didn't have any data to back up these percentages, but it felt about right, so I ran with it.

This was before I started powershifting, and I share your skepticism after reading your post. With powershifting, a higher percentage of your overall damage will come from shred, so the overall C:AP should rise. Also, I don't think the C:AP formulas I'm using account for the bonus CP from BF, so crit would be even more valuable than the formulas suggest.

At this point, I think I need to start logging combat data. I need some hard data to back up the theorycrafting. Does anyone know of an addon that will log all the combat data to a text file?

[Lorilay]

I think what you really need is a target dummy

[Syrma]

Thank you for your post, Yurf. I am really looking forward to your analysis if there's ever going to be one. The thing is, it would reevaluate the value of 1 agility too, since it gives a 0.05% crit chance. It might even be that 1 agi ends up being worth more than 1 str. Which could shuffle up the whole BiS list and some enchants.

It would be super nice if you could implement the formula in a excel document online for other to try out
Anyway, good luck.

[Yurf]

Yeah, I'll throw the results up when I get a chance, but it will be a week or so since I'm doing the Thanksgiving thing currently.

Ugh, I really hope I don't need new Arcanums of Voracity after all this.

[Syrma]

Haha, yea, that has come to my mind too. Good thing I'm broke and haven't enchanted those pieces yet

http://realmplayers.com/CharacterViewer.aspx?realm=KRO&player=Syrma

But it might be very close for Bonecrusher vs The Unstoppable Force...well I guess I might get the Draconic Maul once my guild starts clearing BWL, but still...

[Taladril]

As for agi being more worthwhile than str, that's already been calculated a long time ago. Now like you guys are mentioning, this might not apply to specifically the power shifter so it may be different. But the bottom line is that from a basic sense (and presuming you have heart of the wild. you are feral right?) you would need over 2000 ap before you worry about stacking agi over str.

From a personal perspective, I haven't played with feral dps much yet, but I am leery to do powershifting simply because the more you do it the less your teammates get the crit buff. And really that's a heck of a major reason why you're there in the first place. I think there's a happy medium though to be found with it.

[Syrma]

Actually, I can't speak for you guys, but in my casual guild, I am definitely not there as a walking crit aura for others. I usually end up at the top 5 of the DPS charts of my guild - e.g. last night's raid http://realmplayers.com/RaidStats/RaidOverview.aspx?Raid=20998

So unless I am at the bottom of the DPS charts, which might very well happen with the shitty gear progression feral druids have in vanilla, I'll keep on powershifting. I need to check my AP with raid buffs, 1026 without them atm. So with consumables, world buffs I think I might be getting close to 2k AP.

But the calculations for powershifting will be kinda difficult. Too many variables to consider in my opinion :/

[Taladril]

Actually, I can't speak for you guys, but in my casual guild, I am definitely not there as a walking crit aura for others. I usually end up at the top 5 of the DPS charts of my guild - e.g. last night's raid http://realmplayers.com/RaidStats/RaidOverview.aspx?Raid=20998

So unless I am at the bottom of the DPS charts, which might very well happen with the shitty gear progression feral druids have in vanilla, I'll keep on powershifting. I need to check my AP with raid buffs, 1026 without them atm. So with consumables, world buffs I think I might be getting close to 2k AP.

But the calculations for powershifting will be kinda difficult. Too many variables to consider in my opinion :/

Please don't take this negatively but yes, your raid stats is a poor indicator of what your potential raid's dps should be. A hunter is not going to be 3rd highest dps. Your rogues and fury warrs should be at the top and the rogues in your raid are almost all at the bottom. Not saying your dps sucks, just that you are not currently in a representative sample of optimal vs optimal.

[Syrma]

I do not take it personally, but there is a reason, why I mentioned the "casual guild" in the very first sentence. We are not trying to make the perfect setup for raiding. We are just a bunch of people trying to have fun playing this game. Some of us try harder than others, but that is not the point. I was just reacting to the fact you were saying, that ferals are in the raid as a walking crit buff. Which is not the case in my guild, so I would prefer to actually see someone (Yurf in this case probably) trying to figure out the math instead of hearing once again "omg feral in vanilla sucks.". It's always about the perspective.

If you want to play feral just to please 4 other members of your party - be my guest. But I actually want to make the most of my character by maximalizing its potential.